Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 105 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...Number 9...FINAL This is the ninth in a series of annual Winter/Spring Flood Potential Statements intended to provide insight into the likelihood of river flooding (not flash flooding) over the middle/lower Delaware, Lehigh, Schuylkill, Passaic and Raritan River basins. These statements will provide information on flood threat conditions such as recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover and its water equivalent, river ice conditions, streamflow, future precipitation and others. This outlook does not address the severity or extent of any future river flooding. In the Mid-Atlantic region, heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river flooding. It is important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of year, even when the overall river flood potential is considered to be low. This FINAL outlook is valid from April 27 to May 11, 2017. In the Mount Holly, New Jersey Hydrologic Service Area (HSA), the overall river flood potential is normal. Note - For the headwaters of the Delaware River, see the statement (FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) from our Binghamton (BGM) New York office. CURRENT FLOODING - None. RECENT PRECIPITATION - Normal to above norma1. Between 4.0 and 5.5 inches of liquid have been recorded over the last 30 days. Precipitation departure maps can be found at www.weather.gov/marfc(under the Water Supply tab). SNOW COVER - Normal. No snow is on the ground across the HSA. Depth and basin-average water equivalent estimates can be found at www.weather.gov/marfc (under the Seasonal Interest tab) or www.nohrsc.noaa.gov (under the National Analysis tab). RIVER ICE - Normal. No ice has been reported across the HSA. STREAMFLOW - Variable, below normal to above normal. Real time water data is available from the United States Geological Survey by visiting http://water.usgs.gov. SOIL MOISTURE - Below normal to normal. Soil moisture monitoring charts (Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index) from NOAA`s Climate Prediction Center can be found at the following websites... www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_ monitoring/palmer.gif as well as www.drought.gov. GROUND WATER - USGS monitoring wells indicate that current ground water levels across the region are variable, ranging from much below normal to above normal. Additonal information can be found at http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - Water supply and flood control reservoirs in the area are running below normal to normal. FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - A cold front will move across the area Saturday into Saturday night. This front will remain near the Delmarva and southern New Jersey on Sunday, then return as a warm front on Sunday night. Another cold front is expected on Monday night as an area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region. This low will drift northeast through southeast Canada through Thursday, with a couple of weak surface troughs moving across the area Tuesday and Wednesday. An area of low pressure may affect the Mid Atlantic region late next week. At this time, there are no strong indications of any widespread heavy rain events for about the next week. The 8 to 14 day outlook calls for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. SUMMARY - Taking all of the included variables into consideration, the overall river flood potential is normal. This is the FINAL flood outlook product for the 2016-2017 winter/spring period.